When I first saw The Economist’s headline warning that South Africa risks becoming a “mafia state”, I thought it sounded alarmist.
Then I read the piece.
But their research bears it out.
But I’m not entirely despairing. The Madlanga Commission is exposing part of the problem, and unusually for SA, consequences are already following. Before I explain how, though, here are three facts that stood out in the report:
1️⃣ SA ranks 7th-worst out of 193 countries for organised criminality, according to the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organised Crime, behind only Myanmar, Colombia, Mexico, Ecuador, Paraguay and Congo.
2️⃣ The illicit economy is estimated at 12–15% of GDP, up from about 5% two decades ago. Former SARS boss Edward Kieswetter estimates it costs the state up to R300bn a year in lost taxes.
3️⃣ The construction mafia has gone national. What began in KZN has spread across the country, with criminal groups threatening to sabotage projects unless they get a cut.
Madlanga is, of course, only diagnosing part of a much bigger problem. The real test will be prosecutions, institutional reform and whether its recommendations are actually implemented.
SA has a long history of commissions producing findings that gather dust, going all the way back to the TRC.
But there is good reason to hope this time may be different: consequences are already landing before Madlanga has even delivered its final report.
Its interim findings have already prompted criminal referrals, precautionary suspensions and disciplinary proceedings. SAPS organised crime head Richard Shibiri has been dismissed. Feroz Khan has also been dismissed and is separately facing criminal charges. Cat Matlala, one of the central figures in the commission’s evidence, is already before the courts in multiple criminal cases.
Not all of those cases were caused by Madlanga. But that’s partly the point: unlike so many SA commissions, this one is unfolding alongside actual investigations, prosecutions and institutional consequences rather than everyone waiting years for a final report to gather dust.
The real test is whether that momentum continues once the recommendations land.